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May 03

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Trevor Story- Buying Low on Mile High Prospect and May 8th Bowman Release Thoughts

Trevor Story has the defensive chops to stick at SS. While defensively, his skills will never set him apart at the position, the bat could be all star caliber.  photo 3d4fc14b-35c6-4a47-ad1d-1c4682f84e72_zps11e9be1e.jpg With the recent crop of SS prospects including : Baez, Bogaerts, Russell, Correa, and Profar, Story has been overlooked by the Prospecting Community. The current prices for his 2011 Bowman Draft Base auto range from $9-$15(See Price Guide). I just picked up the Blue Pristine card for $125 on Blowout and am really excited about that purchase. John Sickels had this to say before the season, “1) Trevor Story, SS, Grade B+: Borderline A-: I want to see how his contact issues look against better pitching, but overall there are a lot of things to like here. . .power, speed, walks, defense, a complete package if the strikeouts don’t eat him up. I don’t expect they will. Ranks a bit ahead of Dahl due to defensive premium.

Fast forward to today and the buying opportunity still exists because Story has struggled thus far in 2013, hitting just .143/.236/.240 with just 1 HR.

I asked, Mike Newman of Fangraphs in a chat if he was worried about Story.

12:49
Comment From RyanW

worried about trevor story?

12:49
No, I won’t start paying attention until the All-Star break. When I scouted Story on multiple occasions, I saw a great prospect. 100 PA’s and some K’s aren’t going to sway me.

I think that says it all. At his current prices the risk is low with high reward. I don’t think Story ever becomes a top 10 type, but the likelihood of making a nice profit exists.

 

In other notes, 2013 Bowman releases May 8th. I can’t say I am in love with the checklist, but it does have some high end names. I am sure as prices settle a bit the bargains will become more readily apparent. My gut feel is Byron Buxton is the way to go……even though I am not usually an advocate of the biggest names in a release. Depending on his price (as long as it is below a top guy like Taveras or Profar) is in reason I plan to jump in. His upside is just Eric Davis enormous…and he is crushing out of the gates and walking.buxton

Who are you guys targeting?

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8 comments

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  1. Jamal

    I love Trevor Story I think he will be a superstar.Far as Bowman is concerned ive bought a jumbo.I do like Alan Hanson and Polanco alot.

  2. David

    I like Mark Montgomery. Could be a star closer for the Yankees.

    1. RyanW

      I am getting intrigued by Renato Nunez

  3. Dave

    Is buying non-auto color refractors a good investment?

    1. RyanW

      Yes. I know a few guys on Blowout that do pretty well. The key is the quick flip though as the cards don’t have the auto to hold up the value for longer term.

  4. MattZ

    I would love to hear what you think about Brian Goodwin?
    @RyanW me too….Wish he was on the regular checklist and not just the auto set.

  5. Adam

    There was no bigger fan/collector of Trevor Story than me but I’m officially worried. .250 OBP, 10 BB, 46 K in 128 AB, playing in the second best hitter’s league… and to top it off, 6 Errors in 33 games.

    Also, I owned that Story blue pristine and traded it to the guy you bought it from. Small world. Here’s my scan of it (from when I had it on ebay). Feel free to use it :)
    http://i.ebayimg.com/t/Trevor-Story-PRISTINE-2011-Bowman-Chrome-Draft-Auto-Blue-Ref-150-BGS-10-1-1-/00/s/MTAwMFg2MzI=/z/vPMAAMXQCtlRVBFJ/$T2eC16dHJG8E9nyfpnWrBRVBFJgIsw~~60_57.JPG

    Adam (http://prospects4cash.blogspot.com/)

  6. Prospect Profit

    Story was a product of ridiculous home/away splits (like all of his teammates) and strikes out way too much to be a star. Looks more like a fringe utilityman than anything resembling a star.

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