Baseball Card Prospector

Our blog is still pretty new but our following is starting to grow pretty quickly. I think that is a testament to just how fun prospecting can rather than a reflection of our writing skills and wit. If you guys are like me, a product of the junk wax era, it is pretty fun to see actual value increases in something you like anyway…baseball cards. I admit this year have drank the koolade and my passion for baseball card collecting and prospecting has grown, allowing me to relive some of the fun I had as a kid collecting and being able to justify the expenditures as profitable. The profits are fun, the father in me loves to see my 3 year old’s reaction to the cards and the game of baseball in general. He will almost certainly catch the baseball card fever too and the snowball will keep rolling. On that note, congratulations to my Co-author, Ryan S, on the birth of his first son.

But enough about that, I recently took a small position in Rymer Liriano. I must admit, I hadn’t given him enough attention…partly because the tendency might be to over look the Padres prospects. I think that is ultimately a mistake, as their farm system is now a top notch program. I am friends with a high level individual in the Padres scouting department that recently switched over from another club. Earlier in the spring I asked him if Rymer Liriano was the real deal. His one word response, Yes. For me that was enough to jump in. For you guys…I understand a few other affirmations might be required. The players that Rymer has been compared to most frequently are Raul Mondesi and Matt Kemp. I think a hybrid of the two is the potential outcome. Rymer like many young hitters saw initial success in Rookie ball, going .350/.398/.523 line in 197 at bats over 50 games in the Arizona league. Last year however, he struggled initially in the Cal league which was probably too much for a 20 year old and was sent back down. The great sign is, upon his demotion, something clicked in his plate approach and he learned how to become a more patient hitter as mentioned in a Seedlings to Stars writeup,

“Then, everything changed, as Liriano suddenly showed a five-tool skill set upon going back to the MWL. Long considered an overly aggressive hitter, he managed to get his K/BB ratio up above 2/1, which opened up room for the rest of his skills to flourish.”

The final result was  “.298/.365/.465 with 12 home runs, 68 RBI, 66 stolen bases and an .830 OPS over 580 plate appearances this season between Class A Fort Wayne and High-A Lake Elsinore and was the Midwest League’s MVP” as stated in a recent Prospect Instinct article.

Pretty impressive right? Given his body type I do think he will lose some of the Sb numbers but should hit for up to 30hr power. I think the ultimate comp is that of a Raul Mondesi, with possibly more patience. Liriano is also only 20, dominating older competition last year much like Profar did the previous two years. Given the the variability in where Liriano is ranked by some of the top prospect sites, I think much of the prospecting world may have not caught on yet. Bullpen Banter has Lirano ranked 87th, Keith Law puts him at 40 though and thinks Rymer has 30/30 .300 hitter potential. Given his skill set, potential, and his current prices( I bought a $23 Ref, and $63 Blues) i think he has the makings of a big time money maker.

Buy Rymer!

Being a Houston Astros fan these days sucks.  One bright spot, offering a glimmer of hope for the future, comes by the name of George Springer.  Well, there is also Jonathan Singleton but I’ll leave him alone for now.  Springer is 22 years old, a 6’3” tall, 200 pound OF who signed his contract with the Astros after his final season with the UConn Huskies and after being named Big East Player of the Year and a First Team All-American in 2011.  He was the 11^th overall pick in the 2011 draft.  During his final collegiate season, in just 237 at bats, Springer hit .343 with a 1.082 OPS, 12 HR’s, 77 RBI’s, 60 runs, 31 stolen bases, walked 36 times and only struck out 38 times. 

He’s a 5 tool player with a high upside power/speed combo and a player who may very well become a star in the MLB.  He is a top athlete who is quick on his feet and who plays plus defense with excellent awareness and body control.  Some believe that his defensive skills are so good that he may just contend for a gold glove in the future.  Also scouts have picked up on the fact that Springer plays with a noticeable passion and excitement for the game and without any fear.  He leaves it all out on the field.  If there is a downside to Springer, his uppercut style swing that requires a longer loading process may have a tough time keeping up with a good major league heater.  That said, he can hit the ball a long ways and really puts a lot of body into the bat and generates great power.

When asked who he models his game after, Springer compares himself to Torii Hunter.  Other potential comparisons include Hunter Pence, Drew Stubbs, Carlos Beltran, and maybe even a Matt Kemp (light).  He has 30/30 potential but even if he doesn’t reach that, his power speed combo with plus defense will get him in the heart of some teams lineup.  From a prospecting standpoint, if he settles in as a Mike Cameron, that wouldn’t be as exciting but there may still be some money to be made.   His 2011 Bowman Chrome cards are currently selling at:  $130- $190 Gold, $70- 80 Blue, $25-35 Refractor, and $15 for a base.

At current levels, I believe Springer’s cards are a speculative buy.  He doesn’t have a major league track record, but, if you look at the 2011 crop of cards, hitters always go for a premium over the best pitching prospects.  Names like Harper, Starling, Panik, Belt, Lawrie, Ackley, and Goldschmidt are all trading at or above Springer’s current prices; however, Springer has the tools to be as good, if not better, than some of these guys.  I am taking a position in Springer on the cheap and will wait to see how he develops.  If he looks more and more like a MLB star, I may cash in on some of the cards to break even and keep the profits invested longer term.  If it looks like he’s going to be another middle of the road player, I hope to be out of my position before values decline.

Also, don’t forget, Houston has a terrible team but their market is a HUGE.  The fans down there are just waiting on the next big hitting prospect bandwagon to jump on.  His tools and defensive prowess say yes and the best time to take a position on new talent is before they do anything at the major league level.  At 22, it may not be long before he becomes a household name, at least in Houston, if not throughout the league.

Find his cards on Ebay here:

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_sacat=See-All-Categories&_from=R40&_nkw=bowman%20chrome%20george%20springer%20auto&_sop=3

I recently read a great article comparing the legend of Bubba Starling to that of Bryce Harper. It might seem silly to put Starling in the same stratosphere as a once in generation talent like Harper, but from a talent perspective they really aren’t that far apart. As the article states, both players are athletic freaks and showed their skills at an early age, dominating much older competition for most of their lives.

Bob Button, of the Kansas City Star, wrote,

“Baseball America, in its Prospect Handbook, recently graded Starling at 75 on the 20-80 scouting scale, which projects his potential to be in the company of “franchise players and No. 1 starters such as Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Roy Halladay.”

A select group.

Baseball America rated 900 players in its Handbook. Two others received 75s — Angels outfielder Mike Trout and Rays pitcher Matt Moore. The only player with a higher grade was Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper with an 80.”

That is elite company, but is Bubba overpriced? I’ve seen posts from other prospectors say that Bubba is risky and that he hasn’t done anything yet. Why should I pay more for his Blue Refractors than I do for someone like Profar who has proven he can do it for a couple of seasons?

I am here to tell you why I have and will continue to buy Bubba Starling cards. Game changing Superstar upside. This is the closest we have come to Josh Hamilton since Josh Hamilton. Prospecting is all about what might be. Bubba has a cult following already, and that following will only grow as Bubba starts to hit the radar of the mainstream baseball fan. I think the buying window for Bubba will be open for a while. Unlike Harper, Bubba hasn’t focused on baseball his whole life, so it is entirely expected that he may struggle early as he adjusts and works on his mechanics. Eric Hosmer, a more polished hitter, struggled in his first year too. As a prospector, I hope Bubba struggles initially….it will give me more time to buy, but given his physical gifts he may hit the ground running this year. Even if he does come out the gates mashing, I will still be buying. You see Bubba will take 3-4 years to get to the show. That is 3-4 years for the legend, hype, and the Cult of Bubba to get going. Risky? Yes…but only if he flops and I just don’t see that happening. I see overprinted Bryce Harper auto cards going nuts. It isn’t out of the question to think that shorter supply Starling cards can’t reach Harper prices over time. I plan to buy and hold Bubba and cheer for the next Josh Hamilton along the way!

Buy Bubba on Ebay!

Jameson Taillon, the 6’6”, 225 lb. top high school pitching prospect drafted #2 overall in the 2010 draft out of The Woodlands in Texas has the frame and skill set of a star in the making.  On draft day, some scouts even liked him better than #1 overall pick, Bryce Harper.  Taillon is a hard throwing RHP with a fastball in the mid 90’s that has clocked in as high as 99 at times.  Add to his explosive fastball, an excellent curve, a plus slider, and a decent changeup and you’ll see why scouts project him as a top of the rotation arm.  He needs to continue to develop his changeup and continue to work on control; however, his presence/poise on the mount is already there.

Taillon posted a 3.98 ERA and a 1.198 WHIP with a 97/22 K/BB in 92 innings last year for Low-A West Virginia in the South Atlantic League.  According to the Top 120 Prospects for 2012 list provided by John Sickels on www.minorleagueball.com, Taillon is the 16^th best prospect, ahead of Dylan Bundy (19^th),  Drew Pomeranz (21^st), and Archie Bradley (24^th).  Baseball America has Taillon ranked as the 15^th best overall prospect, behind Trevor Bauer (9^th) and Dylan Bundy (10^th), but ahead of Taijuan Walker (20^th), Archie Bradley (25^th), and Jarrod Parker (26^th).   (www.baseballamerica.com).    Bullpen Banter has Taillon at 14^th overall, with Bundy at 9^th, Bauer at 21^st and Archie Bradley at 29th (www.bullpenbanter.com) .     Taillon is consistently in the top 20 overall prospects for 2012 on just about every ranking out there, yet his Bowman Chrome Auto Cards trade at a substantial discount to all of the other top pitching prospects.

Taillon’s current pricing is as follows: Base $25-$30; Refractors $45-$50; Blues from $95 – $120.  Comparatively, Bauer’s Blue trades for almost double that of Taillon ($200 – $250).  Dylan Bundy’s Blue trades from $150 to $200, ungraded.  Archie Bradley’s Blue now trades from $90 – $120, ungraded and he is still 3 or 4 years out.   Even Manny Banuelos’ Blue trades for $100 – $120 and he is Law’s 23^rd overall prospect.  What is behind the pricing differential you ask?  I have to believe it is partially due to all of the attention the 2011 crop of prospects are getting out there.  Prospectors have lost sight of a top ranked talent and allowed his chrome prices to retreat from highs generated from the buzz surrounding the 2010 draft.  I believe these discounted card prices won’t be around long after Taillon gets another shot at pitching in the minors this season.

Further, look at Taillon’s makeup.  He is a beast, standing at 6’6” with a “traditional pitcher’s frame.”  Compare his build to Bundy, who stands a 6’1”, and tell me who you think is more imposing?  Bundy has all of the makings of a top of the rotation pitcher, and, in fact, may be slightly preferred over Taillon by the pros, but this is prospecting.  Taking comparable skill sets, with the potential that both pitchers become future aces, would you rather own 2 Taillon Blues + 1 Taillon Refractor or just 1 Blue Bundy?  In our last article, we told you why Archie Bradley was a better buy than Dylan Bundy.  Now you can add Taillon to that list.

Prospecting isn’t about buying at a premium, rather, it’s about finding price efficiency breakdowns that allow buyers to purchase at a value and sell for a profit.   Taillon is a highly sought after real life prospect.  With all of the hype surrounding the 2011 draft class, I believe his card prices have retreated enough that I’m taking advantage of a relatively short purchasing window and buying at a discount.

Check out his card prices here:

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_trkparms=65%253A16%257C66%253A2%257C39%253A1&rt=nc&_nkw=bowman+chrome+taillon+auto&_dmpt=US_Baseball&_sticky=1&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14&_sop=12&_sc=1

Happy prospecting out there.