Trevor Story has the defensive chops to stick at SS. While defensively, his skills will never set him apart at the position, the bat could be all star caliber. With the recent crop of SS prospects including : Baez, Bogaerts, Russell, Correa, and Profar, Story has been overlooked by the Prospecting Community. The current prices for his 2011 Bowman Draft Base auto range from $9-$15(See Price Guide). I just picked up the Blue Pristine card for $125 on Blowout and am really excited about that purchase. John Sickels had this to say before the season, “1) Trevor Story, SS, Grade B+: Borderline A-: I want to see how his contact issues look against better pitching, but overall there are a lot of things to like here. . .power, speed, walks, defense, a complete package if the strikeouts don’t eat him up. I don’t expect they will. Ranks a bit ahead of Dahl due to defensive premium.

Fast forward to today and the buying opportunity still exists because Story has struggled thus far in 2013, hitting just .143/.236/.240 with just 1 HR.

I asked, Mike Newman of Fangraphs in a chat if he was worried about Story.

I think that says it all. At his current prices the risk is low with high reward. I don’t think Story ever becomes a top 10 type, but the likelihood of making a nice profit exists.

In other notes, 2013 Bowman releases May 8th. I can’t say I am in love with the checklist, but it does have some high end names. I am sure as prices settle a bit the bargains will become more readily apparent. My gut feel is Byron Buxton is the way to go……even though I am not usually an advocate of the biggest names in a release. Depending on his price (as long as it is below a top guy like Taveras or Profar) is in reason I plan to jump in. His upside is just Eric Davis enormous…and he is crushing out of the gates and walking.

Who are you guys targeting?

I usually have at least a small position in every prospect I recommend as a buy. In the past I have usually found 1 or 2 guys each year that I load up on. Last year it was Javier Baez, for this year my absolute favorite buy is Lewis Brinson. . However, he doesn’t fit in the same risk/reward profile as Baez but his cards are much cheaper as well.I think he is hands down, the best buy in the 2012 Bowman Draft release  As of posting time Brinson Base Auto’s were going for $15, 3 weeks ago they could be had at $10. It seems the market is starting to get a sense of this guy’s upside but the prices don’t fully reflect it yet. I personally own about 20 Brinson’s including a Purple Auto and plan to keep buying more. The big question is why? Tools baby, Tools!

Brinson is a verifiable tool shed. Prior to the 2012 draft many national guys verified his huge athletic gifts, but weren’t sure about his polish. See Lewis Brinson draft video.Fast forward to short season ball and Brinson was already making adjustments, showing polish that others believed he lacked at draft time.  Jason Park’s of Baseball Prospectus wrote on September 10, 2012 regarding Memorable Prospect Debuts,

“Lewis Brinson, OF, Rangers (short-season AZL Rangers)
A few months ago, I wrote an article about raw athletes trying to develop into baseball players, most notably the players who have the physical gifts but lack instincts or feel for the game. At the time, Lewis Brinson was seen by many as this type of player: crazy raw tools with a heavy emphasis on the raw. Whether the misdiagnosed feel was a product of the showcase circuit or just small samples doesn’t matter, as Brinson showed up to professional ball looking very much like a baseball player. A true five-tool talent, Brinson has plus run, plus projections at a premium defensive position, plus raw power [potential], and the hit tool that was supposed to be woefully underdeveloped was much better than expected. Brinson has a lot of work to do, as the swing has a lot of miss, but he also created a lot of hard contact, leading the AZL in extra-base hits with 36. Not bad for an 18-year-old that many thought was a first-round reach based on his lack of feel for the game.—Jason Parks

At that point, Brinson could be gobbled up around $8-$9 for his base cards. What happened, well Brinson didn’t land in the top 100 in many of the top prospect lists, but he did get mentioned in the Guru’s (Keith Law) sleeper prospects for the Rangers system on Feb 6th, Law stated (article)

“I was blown away by the changes Lewis Brinson made to his swing over the summer, setting up his hands a little lower and further back while shortening his stride, significantly improving his bat speed through the zone without any loss of power.”

And two weeks later Brinson is trading for $5 higher. I think it just goes to show you the power of ESPN on these prospects. ESPN and Keith Law are mainstream media. Fortunately, for us prospectors, Baseball America, John Sickels, Fan Graphs, Baseball Prospectus…etc are really just followed by the baseball nerds. Once a prospect hits Sportscenter his prices will pop…..just wait for Xander this year and sell sell sell him when he does.

Sorry for the tangent, the bottom line on Brinson is his tools were never in question. Rangers scouts were rumored as saying he had 1.1 upside, as in first round first pick upside. If you match those type of tools with the ability to make adjustments he has shown already, work ethic, and a little time and you have BJ Upton. Even if Brinson tops out as Cameron Maybin or even Chris Johnson his rise up prospect lists will be rocket powered and his prices will follow.  Agreed, Brinson is no Baez when it comes to his floor or risk level….but at $15 base price I still can’t get my hands on enough. The upside is a top 10 positon prospect, playing a good defensive CF only lowers his offensive requirements to reach it.  I am loading up on Lewis. Its much more of a roll of the dice than my normal super buy guys but the profits could be crazy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmCz9_6XmP8

Buy Brinson!

The Chicago White Sox drafted Courtney Hawkins with the 13^th overall pick in the 1^st Round of the 2012 Draft.  The team and its fan base are loving that decision and baseball card prospectors are also taking note.  The slugger wasted no time getting going in his first season by hitting, in 229 AB’s, 8 HR’s with 33 RBI’s, 39 runs, 11 stolen bases and a .284 batting average.  He did this for 3 teams, going from rookie ball to low-A ball to high A ball in Winston-Salem.  Such a rapid advancement is considered unusual for first-year players drafted straight out of high school, but, given his physical maturity and performance on the field, it’s hard to argue with that decision.

On the negative side, during 2012, Hawkins only walked 11 times and also struck out 56 times.  He certainly has the power to make it happen in the majors but he’ll need to refine his approach at the plate and cut way down on the K’s if he’s going to become a star.  He’s got a strong arm throwing in the mid-90’s and could project nicely in RF or maybe at as a corner IF.  For prospect rankings, MLB.com has him ranked 68^th overall and Baseball America has him ranked 55^th overall.

His potential to hit for power and his quick promotions through his rookie campaign have his Chrome prices trading around ~$28 base, ~$45 for refractors, and ~$95 for a blue.  There’s probably some price inflation here given his quick rise from high school draftee to high A ball in less than a year but where do prices go from here?  Honestly, it’s a tough call and there are good arguments to be made in both directions.  On the one hand, I don’t think we’re dealing with the next Profar, Xander, Wil Myers type, but, Chicago hasn’t had a really good prospect in a long time (Addison Reed? Gordon Beckham? Chris Sale? Frank Thomas?) .  Bleacher Report has him listed as the White Sox #1 prospect and my guess is that Chi-town has this guys back!

At current prices, I don’t think he’s a great buy, but, IF he gets it figured out at the plate, cuts down on the strikeouts, and continues to improve his pitch recognition, he’s got the tools, including raw power, to continue to drive his Chrome prices higher.  That said, it’s a really big IF.  Working in his favor is his young age and the fact that Chicago has no reason to rush him.  Working against him is his aggressiveness and a tendency to commit early on the off speed pitches.

I’m buying a few cards now just in case he continues his ascent and never looks back but the reality is that he’ll probably experience some growing pains as he faces better pitching.  When that happens, his Chrome prices will probably dip a bit, and, I’ll be ready to buy more.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if it takes several years before Chicago promotes him to the majors as an every day power hitting RF.  As always, happy prospecting out there.

I get a lot of questions about which low priced prospects I would recommend. For me that goes against my general prospecting philosophy because prospects, even high end prospects, are inherently risky. With that being said, I tend to focus generally on Top 100 types with a preference for hitters, big markets, power, and premium positions. Focusing on those factors, reduces the risk without giving up a proportional amount of reward. However, it is fun to swing for the fences now and then, especially if a players tools suggest the light could come on at any moment. It may also be the case, although rare, that the prospecting community may have overlooked a prospect and prices reflect it. Bowman Draft presents a good opportunity to find some of the price anomalies, as prospects get very little playing time in some cases after signing. The Bowman Draft product is usually stacked with guys that may have flown under the radar. Enough of my blabbering and on to the substance….

Stryker Trahan is a prospect that I am willing to roll the dice on. His Bowman Draft Base Auto is trading at $9.00 (See Price Guide) as of this post. Stryker was drafted by the Diamond Backs in the first round and flashes both plus raw power and above average speed, which is a rarity among catchers. Physically, he also looks the part…it is easy to see him crushing some baseballs in the future. Baseball Prospectus rates his tools as follows 6+ arm, 7 Raw Power, and 6 run.

John Sickels had the following to say in his Arizona Top 20 Prospects for 2013 about Stryker.
“7) Stryker Trahan, C, Grade B: 2012 first rounder features good combination of power, patience, and speed as an offensive player. He has the tools to catch, but even if he ends up as an outfielder his bat will play.”

The athleticism and work ethic I have read about, along with Styrker’s early success in the Arizona League (Baseball Reference Stats) which included .422 OBP, 8 SB’s, and 5 HR in 167 AB,  gives me some comfort in thinking he should have continued success. The arm and athletic ability give him a decent shot at staying behind the plate as well. If it all works out you could be looking at a power hitting catcher, with a plus arm, and the ability to make something happen on the bases. That combination would have Stryker shooting up prospects lists with his prices sure to follow.

Next post…I’ll tell you who I am highest on from the 2012 Bowman Draft release.

Buy Stryker!

In honor of the Pirates’ 20^th consecutive losing season and the Red Sox going 5-13 against the playoff bound Orioles (worst head to head record since 1970), it’s time to look towards the future in Pittsburgh and Boston and compare two of their better hitting OF prospects – Josh Bell and Jackie Bradley Jr.  As we all know, the Pirates’ prospect lineup is stacked which is due, in part, to their decision to draft Josh Bell as the 2^nd round  of the 2011 draft.  Hailing from Dallas Jesuit, the switch hitting Josh Bell was one of the best high school bats in the country and considered by many as a guaranteed 1^st rounder.  When he fell to the 2^nd, the Pirates couldn’t resist the temptation.  Before the 2012 season, Bell was the 69^th best prospect according to www.mlb.com.

While playing with West Virginia in the Class A South-Atlantic league, Bell tore his meniscus in the knee early on.  In his first 62 at-bats with the Power, Bell was batting .274 with 17 hits, 1 HR and 11 RBI’s.  Because of this small sample size, we have to rely on his senior year of high school line in which he put up monster power numbers – hitting a HR every 5.8 at-bats while only striking out 5 times.  He looks destined to play a corner OF spot one day but make no mistake, his bat is what prospectors are after when they buy his Chrome.  His swing and plate discipline point towards a successful hitting career and his above average defense won’t hurt either.

Most prospect listings still have Bell in the Top 100 (e.g – #73 at www.minorleagueball.com) but some have him as “honorable mention” (www.deepleagues.com), a ranking that is sure to depress Chrome prices even further.  Bell is your typical high risk/high reward prospect but with his power potential and cheap card prices, he’s worth the gamble.  Any chance of a 2012 return were dashed when he had a rehab setback but all signs point towards a healthy return in 2013.  His injury has certainly contributed towards his depressed Chrome prices so if you want to roll the dice on doubling your money, this is your guy with the power upside to make you some profit.

As a stark contrast to Bell’s style/potential, power will not be a part of Jackie Bradley Jr.’s game.  Hailing from Virginia, Bradley Jr. had a successful high school career and went on to play 2 years of ball at the University of South Carolina where he hit a respectable .368 with 13 HR’s,56 runs and 60 RBI’s in 67 games during 2010.  He was drafted 40^th overall in the 2011 supplemental draft after being named the 2010 college World Series Most Outstanding Player.

After the draft, he joined the Salem Red Sox in high class A and subsequently the Portland Sea Dog’s AA squad in 2012 where in 128 games, he averaged a respectable .315 with 42 doubles, 90 runs scored, 9 HR’s and 63 RBI’s.   He also added 24 stolen bases. He is a well above average defender and, despite not possessing elite speed, has excellent range in the OF and makes difficult plays look easy.  He may even contend for a gold glove or two during his career but, as prospectors know, hitting is what will drive his Chrome prices.

Bradley Jr. seems destined to hit at the top of the lineup as his tools indicate a plus hitter for average.  He’s not likely to be a consistent .300 hitter but maybe .270-.280 seems more realistic, especially in Boston.  He’s probably more of a single digit HR guy who, because of his relatively small frame, does not fill out a lot and remains relatively quick.  My take on Bradley Jr. is to take a position in his Chrome but get out when he gets called up.  The Boston hype machine will support his prices and he will continue to generate a buzz; however, once he hits the majors, his lack of power will limit his card price upside.

Current prices are as follows:

Josh Bell: Base Auto ($20); Ref Auto ($40); Blue Auto ($80)

Jackie Bradley Jr: Base Auto ($30); Ref Auto ($60); Blue Auto ($120-150)

Based on current prices, I like the upside of Bell but will probably get in on both for the interim.  I expect Bell’s prices to double come 2013 when he gets a chance to remind the baseball world why he was drafted as a power hitter.  Bradley Jr. is a buy and hold until he gets the call – likely sometime in the late 2013 or early 2014 season.  As always, happy prospecting.